A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
