Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
